Creative Shopping during Panic Buying

By now, almost everyone has ran into something that they have had on the list to buy that was absent on the shelves of their local store.  Paper products, cleaners, meat, and flour are just a few that have been reported. Whether it is through panic buying that sucks up the supply or limited supply due to lack of incoming stock, people have found empty shelves where they expected the items they need. This is not a new phenomenon. Those in hurricane prone areas see it when major storms get announced. The same can happen in areas plagued by huge snowstorms.  The Covid-19 pandemic has caught a lot more people with out a plan unprepared because of its wide reaching effects and duration.

While I always advocate preparing before hand for events such as this, some readers are not in that position or have had major life changes that they had not planned for.  Due to that I am going to discuss some ways that I have found to fill out that shopping list when you local grocery store is bare.

The first suggestion i have is to look at alternate, not so normal, locations. When Covid-19 just began and paper products, water, and other items became scarce, I happened to be in a national brand pharmacy. Walking the aisles I discovered that products absent from the normal grocery store were in stock in quantity. In addition, any that were higher priced, were only moderately so. It seems no one thought to hit the pharmacy grocery aisles. Some other examples of places that are not on a lot of peoples radar are convenience stores, restaurant supply stores,  ethnic grocery stores, farmer’s markets, and home stores (like T. J. Maxx and Marshall’s) that have dry goods. In addition I found that higher end grocers such as The Fresh Market had items like chicken breast and ground beef when other “regular” stores were out. Sometimes the pricing was higher, but normally the quality was also. While I was shopping in alternate locations, I heard many of my coworkers complaining that they could not find X item, but when asked would confess that they never even went to a different grocery store to look for it. So sometimes it was good to stray from your normal habits and try places such as this.

Another suggestion is to look for alternative products. When toilet paper became a ‘fight in the aisle’ item, many places still had flush-able wipes or at least baby wipes. Even facial tissue could be an option and was in stock almost everywhere in at least small quantities. So take a creative look at what you could use. Some other examples include using couscous in the place of spaghetti noodles, frozen veggie burgers in place of ground beef patties,  or packaged soup mixes in place of canned soup. There are a lot of times pretty simple alternates if you simply look. The beauty of these is that if you normally don’t think of it, lots of other people won’t either.

A third suggestion is what I like to call mob shopping.  What this consists of is a group of people, whether it being family, friends, or other, that coordinate their shopping. This can either be by sharing your list and shopping on different days/times or at the same time, but each at different stores. Which option works best depends on your area. One savvy friend of mine accompanied her Dad to her local grocery store in the early “over x age” hour on the morning after the grocer got a new truck shipment. The other people in her group did similar at other stores in different areas and that gave them the best stocked shelves. This gave them the most opportunities to fill every ones’ orders.  This can take some organization, but with a bit of planning and communication via text or calls this can help everyone out.

So as you can see, a bit of creative thinking and problem solving can provide you the best shot at keeping your family stocked with supplies. Just remember that as you shop, that buying extra as you can will help you if future shortages happen. Start by concentrating on those “have to have” items and fill out some of the additional wants to keep things from being too stale of experience. For other tips on planning food stores, take a look around the site and I am sure you will get some ideas.

Surprises for a New Gun Buyer in 2020

The Covid-19 pandemic and other current events such as rioting has caused a lot of people to become more nervous about the state of the world today. Many feel much less safe than they did a year ago. This has caused many previously neutral or anti-gun individuals to seek to purchase a gun and ammunition. This sudden rise in demand has caused surprises for many that have decided to buy a gun for protection.

The first surprise that many are finding is that,  unlike a year ago, the shelves of their local gun store are not brimming with whatever gun they might want. Some popular brands, like Glock,  or models, like the Smith & Wesson Shield,  are hard to find in many areas. In addition, lots of the guns that occupy the lower price bracket are also very hard to find. This leaves many new, possibly minimally informed, buyers in a tough spot.

The second surprise that these new shooters run into is related to ammunition. While some gun stores have held back a bit of ammo to ensure that gun buyers get at least a box or 2, in many places the shelves are almost bare. Popular handgun calibers including 9mm, .45ACP,  and .380 are in very low stock, if not absent in most places. Where they can be found, lots of stores have doubled or even tripled the price based on the demand. The same goes for a lot of popular rifle calibers. Ones like .223, 5.56, 7.62×39, .308, 30-06, and 30-30 are also absent. This means that any buyers that could not find a handgun, but instead bought a rifle for home defense are in the same boat.

The last surprise I am going to cover differs on a state by state and country by country basis. Often these buyers that show up to buy a gun, manage to find one, and ammo for it, are then told that there is a waiting period ranging from 3 days up to 14 days before they can take that gun home. In addition some states require the buyer to have a particular permit that can take up to 6 months to get. To many this is unfathomable since they are buying guns to protect themselves from threats that are now, not in 2 weeks.

Now while I normally cover preparation planing here, I have had gun related posts before. I do feel that everyone that can should have a firearm of some sort, but this is not the point of this post. The point is to emphasize why you should plan and gather resources BEFORE things get to the point that you need them. This just happens to be a very clear situation where many did not and it caused them issues. There again, I do commend those that have watched local events and recognized that they are the only ones that can be responsible for their own safety. As the saying goes, Better late than never.

As always, if you have questions, feel free to contact me and I will provide you any information that I can to help further your emergency planning.

Shelter in Place, Isn’t that just Bugging In?

There are lots of areas around the world right now where orders to “Shelter in Place” have been issued. In others, people have been requested to stay home by “Safer at Home” campaigns. Some people seem upset by this. Unfortunately, just like a lot of people refuse to plan for any type of emergency, it seems like lots of people refuse to recognize this pandemic. Moving about for anything but the most essential things puts you, your loved ones, and those you encounter at risk.

I prefer to think of this as a bugging in scenario. While there may be no zombies or nuclear fallout, traveling around unnecessarily is still very dangerous. So, the best option is to avoid that contact with others so that we can let the virus burn itself out.

Unfortunately, those with no planning panic at the thought of isolating themselves. Realization that they have no store of essentials to sustain them causes several different possible reactions. Some panic and rush to hoard whatever might spontaneously leap to their mind as “essential.” This results in chaos and some odd buying patterns, like the toilet paper hoarding. Many rushed past food, water, and medical supplies, to grab the most toilet paper they could heap on a cart. I hate to inform them, but without food and water there is not much need for toilet paper. Besides, as much as our germophobic hygiene obsessed society would hate to think of it, humans survived for a long time without toilet paper.

Others react with anger based on this panic. They say that being told to stay home is a violation of their rights. In my eyes this is just a knee jerk reaction. I am a very big proponent of individual rights. This is a public health situation and has to be treated as a threat. Mandates to shelter would have never been needed if people just used common sense and paid attention to the warnings. Instead people still go about like nothing is going on. While statistically this is not anything like the 1918 Spanish Flu, it does have the potential to be very devastating. With much larger numbers of people traveling much more and farther on normal days, one infected person could set off a chain to infect thousands. Limiting contact limits the spread and is the only 100% effective precaution.

Still others react with panic driven by fear based on a lack of control. These people tend to insist that the government is not doing enough and must help them. This is due to the fact that they have been totally dependent on these support systems beforehand. They are used to having things just magically taken care of for them. They don’t care to know how it happens, just that they don’t have to bother with it. They are happy as long as they can get up every day, swing through a drive through for breakfast, go about their morning, get take out for lunch, and then stop on the way home by to pick up a pizza for dinner. When this is interrupted, they have nothing to fall back on. Most take no responsibility for the issues. They just point fingers and place blame on others for not fixing it so that their lives are not inconvenienced.

Fortunately, if you have even done basic planning, isolating should be less of a  shock. While you may not have everything you want, you should have what you need in quantities that keep from making unnecessary trips out. You are probably much more likely to be adaptive and make due. If beans and rice are all you have until your order at the local grocer can be filled, then you make the best of it. If you can’t get the brand you like of an item, you take the brand you can. That attitude is one of the best tools to get you through this.

One other things to take from this is that this is a great soft run for your planning. It will expose some weak points that you need to remedy. Luckily, things should begin to stabilize as supply chains catch up and health care providers find out more info on COVID-19 treatment. So during this time that you may have a bit more free time to use, review things and make notes as to what needs to be beefed up or changed. If it is more supplies you need, go ahead and order them if you can. If it is revising how you react to certain situations, sit down with your family or group and hash out how to amend the plan.

Lastly, let me just say that there is a bright spot in this that some people may pass up. On normal days families are in such a frantic rush to get to work, school, and activities that it is hard to squeeze in time to bond. During this time, lots of those commitments will be eased up. Take some of that extra time to prepare and enjoy  a family meal,  play games, have a long phone conversation, or whatever brings you you closer to those you love, even if they are far away geographically. The technology is there to talk to, see, or even play games with them no matter how far they may be. So make use of it and hopefully we will all emerge from this better for the shared experience.

Stay prepared and stay safe out there…. bugged in.

 

Great things to do while stuck at home

It seems for many people either forced to shelter-in-place by government orders or just personally isolating themselves cabin fever is setting in.  Here are some suggestions and links to help out.

Read

Reading is a great way to pass the time and keep your mind occupied. If you are short on books, Kindle Unlimited is free for the first month

Sign up here: Kindle unlimited

If you need something to read on, Amazon has a special going

Listen to Audio books

Audible is giving away free streams of kids’ books while schools are closed.  If you want you can sign up or even give a gift subscription to someone to allow them access to the entire library.

Audible

 

Play Games

Board games are a great hit in my house with the adults and kids. There are many types to choose from.

Some popular ones

LIFE

Battleship

Monopoly

Clue

UNO  – Not necessarily a board game, but a card game good for all ages.

If you don’t have Amazon Prime, you can sign up for $5.99 a month and get those games shipped free 2 day shipping.

Amazon prime for $5.99/month

Or you could do a 30 day Free Trial if you haven’t in the past.

Amazon Prime 30 day Free Trial

 

Fire Up the Grill

Around our house if always seems so rushed that we never get to take time out on the deck to cook out and hang out. Get fresh air, good food, and family time all in one.

Grilling supplies

Go Outside

I know that sounds kind of against the isolation, but I mean if you are fortunate enough to have a decent yard where you can relax without coming in close contact with neighbors.

Some games I recommend for outside

Corn Hole toss

Ring Toss

Yardzee

I know the change of routine and sometimes seemingly cramped quarters can cause a little bit of insanity. Try to make the best of it with everyone home by looking into some outlets above. The alternative (going out) could keep the world fighting COVID-19 much longer as people infect and potentially re-infect others. If you have preparations already in place, take the time to relax a bit. Whether things get better or worse, you will need to be ready to get back to the routine or implement your disaster planning. Lastly, stay safe wherever you are and stay prepared.

Relax – You can’t eat Toilet Paper – COVID-19 Blind Panic

Right now, it is almost impossible to go an hour without seeing or hearing about COVID-19. It is running amuck in most of the world right now causing shortages and fear.

Please watch out for yourself and your loved ones.  Maintain good hygiene by washing your hands well (soap and warm water for 20 seconds) and using other sanitation item you may have. Practice isolation from the general public to whatever degree you can. Just to be safe. If you are in areas that do not have mandatory shelter-in-place orders, halting the spread of the virus might help to keep it that way.

The key is to be safe and prepared but not to panic. Panic is driving the toilet paper shortage (for no good reason). Those loading up on toilet paper, but not any other essentials, may find themselves very hungry if this lasts an extended period of time. Stocking up on things like canned soups, crackers, peanut butter, and protein bars are a good idea. All of these have an extended shelf life and most can be eaten without heating them.

As an alternate to toilet paper since it does seem to be hard to track down, flush-able wipes can still be found some places. I suggest using Amazon so you can avoid the stores.

Flushable Wipes

They also have toilet paper, though not as cheap as before and not a common brand

Toilet paper

Pick up some protein bars and peanut butter while you are there if you need to stock up.

Cliff Bars

Peanut Butter

Again, stay safe out there by using common sense to limit your exposure and avoid the panic that the unprepared seem to be having.

If you have questions or concerns feel free to contact me on the Contact page

Contact Leveled Survival

Coronavirus: Pandemic or Panic

Unless you live under a rock, you will know that Coronavirus is a very hot issue in the world right now. It is almost impossible to visit a news site, turn on the television, or listen to the radio without encountering a story about it. It is so overwhelming that it is difficult to discern what the real facts are and what is hype to get better ratings or political clout. It is important to examine the details to determine the best course of action.

First, what is the coronavirus? According to the World Health Organization (WHO)

“Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses which may cause illness in animals or humans. In humans, several coronaviruses are known to cause respiratory infections ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). The most recently discovered coronavirus causes coronavirus disease COVID-19.”

Common symptoms that occur with COVID-19 are fever, tiredness, and dry cough. Less frequently people may have aches and pains, nasal congestion, runny nose, sore throat or diarrhea. For the vast majority of patients these symptoms are mild and begin gradually. Some people who become infected don’t develop any symptoms and don’t feel unwell.

About 80 percent of the people that become infected actually get better without any special treatment. Only about 1 in 6 that get the illness will have serious issues. Lots of times this is due to other already present medical issues. Of all those that get ill, only 2 percent die according to currently reported numbers. Some sources theorize that this percentage may even be too high since some people that would fall into the mildly ill category might just get well and fail to report it. It might be chalked up to a mild case of the flu or a bad cold. As you can see from this data, Coronavirus is far from a Black Plague type illness.

While localized, the virus can spread fairly rapidly, globally it is very limited. Right now only about 5 percent of the verified cases are outside China. This means with proper medical response and quarantine those already infected should be able to get well without infecting others. Globally this makes a huge difference. While a vaccine would be great, stopping the spread from person to person will begin to snuff out the virus.

So, the biggest question might be “How do I prepare for this?” In all honesty the first step is common sense. Practice good hygiene to avoid the possibility of picking the virus up from your surroundings. This includes properly washing your hands, keeping your hands away from your mouth and eyes, and not sharing drinks with anyone. These will go much farther toward keeping you healthy in most surroundings than a mask. Another part of this is limiting your interaction with others if you become ill. As much as possible, avoid interactions with family, friends, and coworkers until you are well. This will contain the spread if you do have the coronavirus and possibly keep you from catching it a second time from those you infected.

As far as more traditional preparation, the need to possibly secluded yourself means you should make sure that you are stocked up on essentials. Food, water, toilet paper, prescription medications, and cold/flu medications to help with the symptoms is a good starting point. This will mean you can stay at home and limit exposing others or being exposed. This may well be enough if the virus progresses as it is now.

There are two other possibilities that you may need to ponder when deciding your level of preparation. The first is that due to either an explosive spread of the virus or a viral mutation that makes it much deadlier, the situation globally becomes much worse. The second is that public panic sets in causing social upheaval that exceeds the danger of the virus itself. If either of these were to happen, you may need to prepare at a higher level. In this case, depending on how bad it gets, you might need longer term and more elaborate food and gear stores. Gear such as flashlights, a camp stove, water purification systems, and hygiene supplies should be stocked in case power goes out and cannot be restored quickly. Longer term food in larger quantities could be needed since you may not know when you will be able to get more. Panicked people (for good reasons or not) can pick the stores clean very quickly. That is already happening in some areas. Also, transportation of goods might be limited as a precaution and that would isolate you from online sources. In addition, proper personal protection equipment (PPE) should be on hand to protect you at times you have to interface with people, animals, or locations that might infect you. Proper masks and gloves would be the most basic. Face shields, hazmat suits, and disinfecting chemicals might be in order if you plan for the worst.

Planning and gathering supplies should be done soon if you plan to. An amount of panic has already set in for certain people and areas.  This is causing your selection of certain items to be thinner than normal. One example is N95 masks. These are almost impossible to get through normal channels and auction sites are seeing them sell for ridiculous prices. It is simply the law of supply and demand with a hefty dose of opportunistic greed tossed in.

If you are looking for more specifics on items you might need, my previous post The list I thought I would never make is a good starting point. The items listed there are aimed at making a family prepared for longer term survival in uncertain situations.

So, in this changing situation, remember to stay calm and plan ahead in order to stay on top of the situation as the level increases. As always, if you have specific questions, feel free to contact me.

OPSEC for Civilians – Keeping Secrets

The word OPSEC can be heard in a lot of discussions of survival preparedness and apocalyptic stories. A lot of individuals do not understand what that means because it is a primarily military term. As with lots of military vocabulary, this is an abbreviation for a longer phrase. OPSEC began as the phrase “operations security.” Operations security is defined on Wikipedia as

“a process that identifies critical information to determine if friendly actions can be observed by enemy intelligence, determines if information obtained by adversaries could be interpreted to be useful to them, and then executes selected measures that eliminate or reduce adversary exploitation of friendly critical information.”

In layman’s terms this means that you keep vital information related to planning out of the hands of anyone you do not trust completely.

This can be traced back to some concepts developed in World War II. One example is this World War II poster by Seymour R. Goff. It is the early example of the “Loose lips sink ships” phrase.

 

Another is this poster that comes from the Women’s Army Corps anti-rumor propaganda (1941–1945).

This may seem like a purely military idea, but it is not. The planning that you do is in order to protect yourself and loved ones. Some other people are not of the same mindset though. I have even seen people boasting online that they don’t need to stock supplies because they will just take what they need when the time comes. Sadly, this is a real possibility.

This is not to say that all your planning needs to be done in a whisper in the backroom or by using invisible ink. You may feel that no one should know you have any plans set up. That is fine. At the least though, it means that certain details may be restricted to your family or group. These details might include how many supplies you have set aside, where they are stored, any bug out locations you have planned for, or weapons you may have. Basically any details that could be used to derail your plans should be protected. No one wants to have the worst-case scenario happen and then show up to your bug out location to find it occupied by your heavily armed coworker.

So, to finalize, don’t hesitate to discuss planning if you feel safe in doing it. The free exchange of ideas is what improves planning and creates relationships that may be vital in an emergency. Letting everyone in earshot know how much food you have in your garage might not be a good idea though. Use common sense when deciding what to discuss and with whom.

Alternate Communications

Lets face it, most of us are used to picking up our phone and calling or texting someone at a moments notice. On a day-to-day basis it is very easy to communicate. This is the marvel of modern technology. I highly recommend that you have a cellualr phone with you at all times. For most people, signal will be good enough to call for help in an emergency. Even with very low signal a text message can often still be transmitted. Keeping the appropriate chargers and a power bank handy is also advisable. In a large percentage of situations this will be enough to call for help if you have a medical emergency, auto accident, become lost, or face a natural disaster. There are times though that the cellular networks will be overwhelmed or down completely.

These situations where cell phone access is unavailable require a bit more thought to plan for. This has been see multiple times in the recent past. On 9/11 cell networks in the surrounding area were crippled from the immense load of the calls. They became unusable. I even experiened some of this hundreds of miles away as the cellular providers attempted to reroute call traffic through secondary routes to lessen the load. Ironically, when being able to make a call is the most important is when it is most likely to be jammed up. This means that we must plan alternate methods to communicate with family, group members.

One of the easiest ways to set up an alternate communication plan over a moderate distance is handheld “walkies.” While these could be susceptible to breaking down from an EMP or simple age, they are simple to aquire, train on, and deploy.  Most of these require standard batteries and additional ones can be stored with it. Rechargable batteries and a solar or crank charger would be a nice addition. Also many models have weather alerts built in. You do need to remember a few facts though. First, these have a limited range that greatly decreases with obstructions. Second, most if not all of the channels on these are public and not secure. A personal set of code words would be advisible in case things become hostile. Lastly, often different models and brands may not be set up with the same channels. This can also vary with the ages of the units. Decide on and test channels ahead of time.

Here is an example of a unit that is rated well and affordable

Midland – GXT1000VP4, 50 Channel GMRS Two-Way Radio

A second option that is similar is CB or Ham radios. I will not go over all the differences, but basically CBs are lower powered and not regulated where as HAM radios require a license but have much more power and bandwidth. These units would allow for a much larger range than hand held 2 way radios. The trade off is that these normally require more power to run. Ham radios do come in handheld models, but many of the more powerful are a fixed location affair. Another plus though is that you can communicate with groups such as emergeny responders in yoiur area via HAM.  Most 2 way walkies cannot do that. There are many great online resources about HAM radio and most areas have a “club” where you could meet some experienced HAM operators.

In the event that the use of electronics is not possible, there are still ways to communicate with others. This can require a bit more preplanning if you feel that there may be the possibility of others misusing the information. It would be smart to come up with some “code” with your group members. It does not have to be hard. Something as simple as refering to Grandpa’s house as “The Farm” or using a symbol for each member to securely sign the communication. It may sound a bit like an old spy movie, but if things are really bad, nefarious individuals might use intercepted communication to track or ambush you. On the up side, as long as everyone knows the “code”, there is no harm in it and it might even simplify things.

There are several ways you can use this code. You could write a note and place it somewhere out of sight that others know to check. This could let you confirm your status, travel desination, and who is with you. Another way to leave communication might be to paint something on the side of a building along your route. While this would not be good to do in normal times, during a forced evacuation or worse cases it might be the best way to catch the eye of others in your group traveling the same route.  Sharpie style markers are also useful to do this on a smaller scale. These coukd be used to write on windows, street signs, or abandoned cars.

While I know some of this may lean toward the apocalyptic level of disasters, it will hopefully give you something to think about for all levels of planning. Because of things such as long commutes, children away at school, and simple distance between towns, we may find ourselves far flung when disaster strikes. This communication is important because it connects you to your most valuable resource, family and friends.

National Preparedness Month 2019

Yet again we roll around to September which is National Preparedness Month. It is a great time to reevaluate your planning and update it based on situation changes. Life events that change your geography, add or remove household members, or affect your health are all things that may cause a need for changes. In addition, social, political, and environmental changes may also warrant revisions in parts of your planning.

FEMA’s site Ready.gov is using the theme this year of “Prepared Not Scared.” It is a great theme because fear should not be the driving factor in your planning.

The different focus for each week also highlights important topics to consider. I have touch on each of these topics in past posts, but visiting them again periodically is a great idea.

Saving early is not just good for disaster preparedness, but is great overall. Sometimes putting money back can be very hard, but there are many great strategies out there. From putting all your spare change into a savings account to brown bagging lunch, it is not hard to save something. Even if it is not a lot each week, small amounts add up. When disaster happens, whether it be a blown out tire, roof leak, or hurricane, not having any cushion of funds can leave you in a perilous situation.

Planning for a disaster is, well, why you are reading my page I hope. Planning is a definite way to take control of the situation so that you are not paralyzed by fear when things do happen. In worst case scenarios, those that act early will have a better chance to come out of it successfully. Time is a precious commodity whether you are evacuating ahead of a hurricane, gathering last minute supplies to ride out a blizzard, or outrunning everyone else escaping the zombies (just kidding).

I did an entire post on including your kids in your planning. No one is too young to understand some part of the plan. Things as simple as “meet at the mailbox if you have to escape the house” are a great place to start. Plenty of five year olds dial 911 in an emergency every year. Even if they can’t explain the issue to the operator, the call will alert emergency personnel.  This teaching also sets the precedent to allow you to expand their part in your plan later. Plus, spending time with your family on a shared activity is always a good thing.

In addition to your own planning, I do agree that everyone should be a part of their community planning. On the up side, you have input to try and get the most effective plan in place. You will be able to form bonds with other like-minded people that may help you to band together in times of need. On the more selfish side, you will know what others plan so that you can adjust appropriately. Plus, hopefully some sound advice offered to others might help you lessen the number of unprepared people around you. That possibly means less people to clash with over resources if you cannot leave or no assistance can get to you.

So take this month as time to plan or revisit existing plans. Read up on what others suggest and find how their ideas apply to you. Most importantly, decide what level you want to plan for and how your specific life affects your plan.

Day 2 of the Apocalypse

Watch any apocalyptic themed movie and you will see a very common trend. Your happy go lucky neighbor will turn into a raving psychopath as soon as whatever event happens that makes it apocalyptic. While this tends to add drama and move the story along, it is not very realistic. Aside from a pandemic disease that alters the mind of those infected (i.e. 28 Days Later) or a nuclear incident, most people will not even realize things have hit the fan at first. Even if a widespread EMP event happens, most people will assume things will be back to normal in a few days. Authorities will tend to reassure people of this in an effort to not incite panic. While it may actually vary in time period, I refer to this as Day 1. For the most part this can be a quiet time. Some less than desirable individuals will try to leverage that law enforcement is stretch thinner than ever to ramp up criminal efforts. Most ordinary people like our neighbors, members of the PTA, and the college girl that babysits your kids will be either in a state of shock or disbelief though. This period unfortunately is when the decisions you make can very well be life or death.

In this lull, unless the situation is instantaneous cataclysmic, most people will feel more inconvenienced than anything. They will follow their normal patterns as much as they can. They will go to work or school if it is open, come home, have dinner, do chores, and repeat the next day. They will discuss news tidbits they have heard with their friends and neighbors and theorize about when this will end. Most will feel that their community services, government, and relief organizations will take care of the problem in due time. You can’t really blame them for wanting to believe that. Most have no idea how to react if that is not true. The longer this period lasts, the thinner the veneer of society will be stretched.

It will begin to dawn on some slower than others that this is not going to end any time soon. That is when the transition will begin to what I refer to as Day 2. Again the actual time period may vary greatly depending on the actual events. This is when the full implications of a large scale disaster will sink in. Panic is very likely to ensue. Essentials like food, water, and fuel will become points of conflict as people try to hoard what they can. Both targeted and random violence will begin to break out. The uncertainty will leave most in a high level of stress and panic. The longer the population remains high, the more resources will be burned up or willfully destroyed. Possibly within a matter of hours of the light bulb going off in their head, those in densely populated cities will begin to migrate outward in hopes of finding the quiet little farm or a section of woods where they can hold up. Millions of unprepared and ill-supplied bodies will tear across the land ravaging it worse than a wildfire. As the situation becomes dire, people will become desperate to feed themselves and their loved ones. Desperate hungry people often feel they have nothing to lose and will not act logically. This will make for a very dangerous horde trampling towards wherever they may see as glimmer of hope.

As someone making preparation for various disasters, you might already see that Day 2 is too late to be making your move to relocate and secure yourself. Like has been seen in so many evacuations, traffic will be at a standstill on any road but the most remote. Initially the volume of traffic will be the issue, but as hours pass roadways will become long parking lots of crippled and abandoned vehicles. Any vehicle that is not trapped in this will become a target for anyone with questionable morals. The only way to avoid this deathtrap that many will fall into is to identify Day 1 and have plans in place to move quickly or already be at a location that allows you to hunker down safely.

When planning take this need for swift and decisive action into consideration. Wasting precious time mulling over your options or going shopping for essentials might put you directly in the middle of the rush to leave. While there are some item you may need to acquire at the last minute, make those as few as possible. Also, in many situations credit cards will be useless, so having cash on hand will help you get the last minute items you need to round out your supplies. Additionally, be sure to plan how everyone is to get to the desired location. Waiting for your entire party to get home may take much longer than meeting them at a central randevu location.

While this scenario goes well beyond localized flooding, snowstorms, or even lower end hurricanes, there are many precedents to look at in recent years. Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Andrew, the Mendocino Complex Fire in California, and others show that it does not take an EMP, government collapse, or a pandemic to cause you to need to put your plan into action. So plan well, review it often, and be prepared to stay ahead of the crowd.